Финансовый институт Standard Chartered опубликовал отчет о прогнозе динамики курса доллара США (USD) в ближайшем будущем.
Согласно проведенному анализу, прогнозируется, что USD, несмотря на начальное ослабление в начале 2025 года из-за снижения ставок Федеральной резервной системой и неопределенности в политике, в целом укрепится за год в целом. Standard Chartered отметил, что возможный рост процентных ставок и курса USD с октября 2024 года может создать проблемы для экономического роста в последующие месяцы. Компания также выразила скептицизм относительно эффективности тарифов в стимулировании роста, особенно в краткосрочной перспективе. Отчет отмечает, что Федеральная резервная система, вероятно, будет снижать ставки быстрее, чем ожидает рынок. Компания делает предположение, что после определения фискальных и тарифных мер во время второго срока администрации Трампа, USD возобновит восходящую траекторию. Standard Chartered предполагает, что долгосрочное укрепление USD будет обусловлено факторами производительности и структурными факторами, а не только краткосрочным макроэкономическим стимулированием. Указывается, что повышенный спрос в США может повлиять на остальной мир негативным образом, а повышенные процентные ставки в США могут оказать воздействие на страны, не требующие ужесточения политики, что может вызвать негативные последствия для роста за рубежом. Таким образом, инвесторам стоит ожидать расширения разницы в процентных ставках по сравнению со странами, уже имеющими мрачные перспективы роста, что может оказать давление на их валюты.Отзывы пользователей
Martinjes
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2024-12-04 17:18:20
HenryGob
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